Constraints on Global Solar Power Generation Development by 2050: Land,Policy, or Funding?

Solar power generation is a crucial pathway toward achieving global carbon neutrality.However, many countries and regions lack a comprehensive understanding of the barriers to solar development from a global perspective.To address this issue, we selected 11 representative countries (or regions) worldwide and projected the electricity consumption and solar land demand of 665 first-level administrative units by 2050.Based on land, capital, and policy dimensions, we constructed PV development constraint scenarios and analyzed the developmental constraints and future pathways of solar power generation in these regions.The results indicate that: (1) Global electricity consumption and land demand will continue to grow.By 2050, only a few countries-such as Australia, Egypt, and South Africa-can largely meet their electricity demand using barren land alone, while only 19.94% of global first-level administrative units can do so; most regions must rely on composite land-use approaches such as construction land integration.(2) Based on combinations of land availability and economic conditions, PV development constraints can be categorized into four types: land-constrained, capitalconstrained, land and capital-constrained, and policyconstrained.(3) Japan, South Korea, the European Union, Brazil, China, and the United States are landconstrained; Egypt and South Africa are capitalconstrained; Thailand and India are land and capitalconstrained; and Australia is policy-constrained.(4) At the first-level administrative unit scale, landconstrained areas are the most widespread (67.92%), while capital-constrained areas are the least common (4.05%).This classification framework provides a scientific theoretical basis and practical guidance for formulating differentiated and targeted regional PV development strategies.