Forecasting Major League Soccer Attendance After Global Sports Events

This study examines the impact of global sports events on attendance trends in Major League Soccer (MLS) and forecasts future changes, considering the potential influence of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America.Global sports events, such as the FIFA World Cup and the Olympic Games, are treated as phenomena that affect economic, social, and cultural aspects beyond sport itself.Focusing on five lower-ranked MLS teams from both conferences to minimize external factors such as superstar effects, a time-series analysis was conducted to assess how global sports events have shaped league development since MLS was established after the 1994 FIFA World Cup.Using a Prophet-based forecasting model, the study identifies structural changes in attendance trends linked to these events.The results show that global sports events have a stronger effect on sustaining fan engagement and enhancing league brand value than on short-term athletic performance.The upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America and the 2028 Los Angeles Olympic Games are expected to further stimulate U.S. soccer growth by increasing MLS attendance and expanding national sports consumption.These findings provide empirical evidence that global sports events can support sustainable professional league growth, offering insights for long-term strategic planning in the U.S. sports industry.