Influence of climatic factors on pest–predator dynamics in tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) agroecosystem of Meghalaya, India

A two-year field study (spring–summer 2023–4 and 2024–5) was conducted at Umeit, Meghalaya, to determine the seasonal incidence and relative abundance of major insect pests and their natural enemies in tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.), and to evaluate their relationship with key weather parameters. A total of 12 pest species and nine natural enemies were recorded. Aphid (Aphis gossypii) was the most abundant pest, followed by Liriomyza trifolii, Tuta absoluta, and Helicoverpa armigera. Among natural enemies, coccinellids dominated, followed by spiders (Oxyopes spp.). Peak incidences occurred at different crop growth stages, with A. gossypii peaking in the 10th standard meteorological week (SMW) of the year, H. armigera in the 15th SMW, T. absoluta in the 13th SMW, and L. trifolii in the 8th–9th SMW. Correlation analysis revealed strong positive associations of H. armigera withmaximum and minimum temperatures, while average relative humidity had a negative influence on most pests and natural enemies. Wind speed was positively associated with several species. Multiple regression models explained a substantial proportion of population variability, indicating the significant role of climatic factors in shaping pest dynamics. The findings provide crucial insights for developing weather-based forecasting models and implementing climate-resilient integrated pest management (IPM) strategies to enhance sustainable tomato production in the northeastern hill region of India.