Non-Tariff Measures, Digital Regulations, and Household Welfare: Evidence from Morocco and the MENA Region in the Context of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Objectives: This paper aims to examine the price and welfare effects of traditional non-tariff measures (NTMs) and emerging digital trade regulations in Morocco and the wider MENA region. It places particular emphasis on their implications for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), especially SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production). Theoretical Framework: The study is grounded in international trade theory concerning non-tariff barriers and welfare analysis. It builds on the concept that regulatory measures—such as Technical Barriers to Trade (TBTs), Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) measures, and digital regulations—can generate price distortions that affect consumer welfare. The framework extends traditional price-gap models by incorporating digital regulatory barriers related to data privacy and network security, reflecting the evolving nature of trade policy in the digital economy. Method: Using HS6-level panel data from 2000 to 2019, the study estimates ad valorem equivalents (AVEs) for TBTs, SPS measures, and selected digital trade regulations. The analysis combines CEPII trade data with customs and NTM statistics from WITS. In a second stage, the paper focuses on Morocco and evaluates welfare impacts by linking TBT-induced price increases to household consumption data from the ENCDM 2013–2014 survey. Simulation techniques are employed to assess changes in the cost of living across income quintiles. Results and Discussion: The results indicate that TBTs are the most significant contributors to price increases across product categories, with maximum effects of 294% for footwear, 212% for clothing, and 161% for meat and poultry. Welfare simulations show that easing TBTs could reduce the cost of living for the poorest income quintile by up to 37.6%. These findings highlight the disproportionate burden of regulatory-induced price increases on low-income households. Research Implications: The study provides important policy insights for trade and regulatory reform in Morocco and the MENA region. It suggests that simplifying technical and digital regulations—while preserving their legitimate policy objectives—can substantially enhance consumer welfare, improve trade competitiveness, and reduce poverty. The results support the integration of regulatory reform into broader strategies for inclusive and sustainable economic development. Originality/Value: This paper contributes to the literature by jointly analyzing traditional NTMs and emerging digital trade regulations within a unified empirical framework. By extending the price-gap approach to account for digital regulatory barriers and linking trade costs to household-level welfare outcomes, the study offers novel evidence on how regulatory policies shape inclusive growth and sustainability in an increasingly digitalized trade environment.