Passive Defense and Earthquake Risk Assessment in Urban Centers Using Linear Allocation Techniques (Case Study of Kermanshah Metropolis)

Iran’s location on a major seismic belt, the high vulnerability of its cities, and the inefficiency of the existing crisis management system highlight the necessity of applying passive defense principles. This study aims to assess earthquake risk in the metropolis of Kermanshah by identifying and analyzing vulnerability components across four dimensions—natural, physical, social, and economic—using 44 specialized indicators. Data were collected through questionnaires and expert consultations and processed using GIS and LINGO software. The applied method was the Linear Assignment Technique, which enables the ranking of urban districts in terms of seismic vulnerability. The results indicated that Districts 7 and 3 exhibit the highest levels of risk, whereas Districts 8 and 6 show the lowest levels of vulnerability. Furthermore, the findings revealed that the spatial overlap of physical and social indicators with fault-line locations plays a decisive role in the severity of potential damages. Based on these findings, the key factors contributing to increased risk in critical areas were identified, and strategies aligned with passive defense principles were proposed to reduce urban vulnerability.