UAV Cyber Resilience Assessment Method: Combining IMECA, Penetration Testing and State-space Markov Modeling

The objective of this paper is to develop and justify a combined method for assessing the Cyber Resilience (CR) of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) under cyber attacks. The proposed approach, formalized in IDEF0 notation, integrates analytical IMECA-analysis and experimental Penetration Testing (PT) procedures with State-Space Markov Modeling (SSMM). This combination overcomes the limitations of static risk assessment methods by creating a closed cycle of system verification and protection. Based on the constructed SSMM, a sensitivity analysis was performed to identify key parameters. The study reveals that the system's response speed is the most critical factor for UAVs’ CR. It was established that an increase in operational recovery time leads to a 31.2% drop in the availability coefficient and nearly doubles the risk of compromise (+87.5%). Conversely, increasing the probability of successful recovery provides a significant increase in the probability of mission success (by 83.6%). Furthermore, the hypothesis regarding the effectiveness of frequent PT was refuted: changing the inspection interval showed a minor impact on availability (