Assessment of the system, direction of changes, proposals for forecasting within the accident insurance system in Polish agriculture – implications for public policy

The risk of occupational accidents and occupational diseases constitutes the primary type of risk associated with agricultural activity, due to the specific nature of work on a farm involving machinery, animals, and variable weather conditions. Consequently, the risk of harm and permanent physical injury remains relatively high. For this reason, accident insurance in agriculture plays a significant role in the social security system for farmers. This study aimed to identify the extent and direction of changes in the number of insured persons in agriculture, as well as payments of lump-sum compensation for occupational accidents and diseases in agriculture from 2014 to 2024, and to attempt to forecast these trends up to 2027. An effort was made to develop forecasts for selected phenomena using the linear trend function, Holt’s exponential smoothing method, and the simple moving average method. The collected data were subjected to statistical analysis and an analysis of the dynamics of the phenomena using time series trends. An analysis was carried out of the correlation between the number of insured persons and the average amount of benefit paid in respect of accidents and occupational diseases in agriculture until 2027. For this purpose, Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient and Pearson’s linear correlation coefficient were applied. The ex - post study covered such factors as the number of insured persons and the costs of paid lump-sum compensation over an eleven-year research period, i.e. from 2014 until 2024. The obtained results indicate that the farmers’ social insurance system in Poland is undergoing significant structural and demographic transformations, which affect its functioning and financial stability. The research demonstrated a decrease in the total amount of compensation paid, accompanied by an increase in the average value of a single benefit. This means that despite the declining number of benefits, the unit costs of their payment are increasing. The correlation analysis confirmed the existence of a very strong statistically significant negative relationship between the number of insured persons and the average amount of compensation, indicating that as the number of persons covered by the system decreases, the average value of the paid benefit increases. On the one hand, the observed decline in the number of benefits may contribute to reducing the financial burden on the system; on the other hand, the increasing value of individual benefits and the decreasing number of insured persons constitute a significant challenge for its future functioning.