Detection of Non-Technical Losses in Electrical Metering Systems in Northern Lima Using Predictive Modeling and Business Intelligence

Non-Technical Losses (NTLs) of electric energy compromise the operational efficiency and sustainability of the electrical system, particularly in the residential sector. This study addresses this problem by developing a predictive model that can estimate energy consumption and detect anomalous patterns. For this purpose, data were collected from the Plataforma Nacional de Datos Abiertos and the Osinergmin website. The study integrates two approaches: ARIMA, which is used to represent time series with well-defined seasonal patterns, and an approach based on XGBoost to represent non-linear behavior in more heterogeneous consumption intervals. The results suggest that ARIMA demonstrated optimal performance in stable cases, with errors close to zero in several cases, where the most representative systems are SR0148 with Mean Absolute Error (MAE) = 0.000124 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) = 0.003549, and SE1095 with MAE = 0.000287 and RMSE = 0.004481. XGBoost, on the other hand, reached its maximum performance in the interval "From 1 to 30 kWh", with MAE = 2.81, RMSE = 5.80, and a Coefficient of Determination (R²) of 0.13. This validates the effectiveness of the proposed approach based on the integration of more than one algorithm to identify electric consumption anomalies.