Policy-Oriented Carbon Neutrality Pathways in Shanxi's Power System: A LEAP-Based Scenario Analysis

With China's carbon peak and neutrality targets in sight, the low-carbon transformation of carbon-intensive power systems becomes increasingly important for realizing China's national emission reduction targets. Based on the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) model, this study presents the first policy-driven multi-scenario LEAP analysis of Shanxi's power system, analyzing the transition paths of the power system in Shanxi Province under different policy scenarios, and further quantifies the changes in generation structure, fossil energy consumption, and major air pollutant emissions. Under the Reference Scenario (REF), coal power still contributes about 78% of total generation in 2060, with fossil energy consumption and CO2 emissions continuing to increase. In the Policy-Driven Scenario (PDS), the gradual expansion of renewable energy reduces CO2 emissions by roughly 100 million tons compared with REF. Under the Carbon Neutrality-Target Scenario (CNS), the share of coal power declines to around 11% in 2060, renewable output rises to nearly 1,000 TWh (terawatt-hours), and major air pollutants drop by 86.3% compared with REF. These results suggest that stronger policy measures, especially those promoting renewable energy and related supporting technologies, are essential for guiding Shanxi toward a carbon-neutral power system.