ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: ANALYSIS OF DYNAMICS AND FORECASTS

The article analyzes electricity production dynamics in the Russian Federation for the period 2010–2024 and develops forecast models for 2025–2027. The research covers electricity production from major power plant types: thermal, nuclear, and hydroelectric facilities, as well as total national production. Over the analyzed period, total electricity production increased by 16.5%, with the highest growth rates observed at nuclear and hydroelectric plants. The study provides a comparative analysis of two methodological approaches to forecasting: seasonal SARIMA autoregression models and LSTM recurrent neural networks. The investigation revealed varying degrees of predictability of indicators depending on power plant type. Total production and thermal power plant output demonstrated the best forecasting performance, while hydroelectric production exhibited high sensitivity to natural factors and consequently lower forecast accuracy. Based on the constructed models, expected electricity production volumes for the three-year period are determined. Forecast verification was conducted using operational data from the Federal State Statistics Service for early 2025, which confirmed acceptable accuracy of the proposed models for short-term and medium-term electricity production forecasting. The results of the study can be applied in the development of energy policy and strategic planning in Russia’s energy sector.