Investigation of socio-economic factors affecting fraud crime in Türkiye by panel ARDL analysis

This study analyses the relationship between socio-economic factors and fraud offences in Turkiye between 2011 and 2020. The study analyses the effects of variables such as unemployment, inflation, national income per capita, migration, infrastructure investments and population density on fraud crime rates according to Türkiye NUTS-2 Classification of Statistical Regional Units. Panel ARDL analysis is used as the analysis method because this method allows to examine the long-run relationships between variables with different levels of stationarity. According to the findings, PMG ARDL long-run analysis results are more in line with the literature. Contrary to the literature, an increase in the number of unemployed is found to have a decreasing effect on fraud offences. The findings of the study reveal that the increase in unemployment rates does not increase fraud, on the contrary, it directs individuals to more legal and secure income paths under certain economic conditions. However, increases in inflation, the amount of infrastructure investment, migration and population density increase fraud offences. In particular, it is noteworthy that inflation increases economic difficulties by negatively affecting the purchasing power of individuals, while increases in migration, urbanisation and infrastructure investments are the main factors that increase crime rates. Moreover, the increase in the number of illiterate people has a decreasing effect on the crime of fraud, which is a qualitative crime. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the relationship between socio-economic factors and fraud offences.