The politics of electoral reform in Canada: a case study of the 2015 unattempted reform

Electoral reform is often promised but rarely delivered in established democracies, especially under First-Past-the-Post systems. This thesis examines Canada's 2015 federal electoral reform initiative as an unattempted reform, a proposal launched but never seriously pursued. It asks why the reform was initiated, what shaped its trajectory, and whether the governing Liberal Party's commitment was sincere or strategic. Using a qualitative single-case design, the study applies Shugart's (2008) model of reform initiation and Jacobs' (2014) process-tracing strategy. Two tools, congruence analysis and process tracing, assess whether inherent and contingent conditions for reform were present and evaluate sincerity of the Liberal Party's commitment. Evidence comes from parliamentary debates, reports, party documents, media coverage, polls, and election results. The findings show reform was initiated despite absence of systemic failure or strong incentives, and the Liberal Party's shifting stance reveals a strategic rather than sincere motivation. This exposes a blind spot in Shugart's model and leads to a sincerity filter, a tool to distinguish credible from symbolic gestures. The thesis contributes a theoretical refinement, a tool for assessing sincerity in electoral reform, and an empirical account of Canada's 2015 unattempted reform, with broader implications for understanding why electoral reform so often remains unrealized in First-Past-the-Post democracies.