Prompting Underestimates LLM Capability for Time Series Classification

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Authors: Dan Schumacher, Erfan Nourbakhsh, Rocky Slavin, Anthony Rios
Cited by: 1

Abstract

Prompt-based evaluations suggest that large language models (LLMs) perform poorly on time series classification, raising doubts about whether they encode meaningful temporal structure. We show that this conclusion reflects limitations of prompt-based generation rather than the model's representational capacity by directly comparing prompt outputs with linear probes over the same internal representations. While zero-shot prompting performs near chance, linear probes improve average F1 from 0.15-0.26 to 0.61-0.67, often matching or exceeding specialized time series models. Layer-wise analyses further show that class-discriminative time series information emerges in early transformer layers and is amplified by visual and multimodal inputs. Together, these results demonstrate a systematic mismatch between what LLMs internally represent and what prompt-based evaluation reveals, leading current evaluations to underestimate their time series understanding.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Language and cultural evolution Topic Modeling

Publication details

Journal / source
arXiv (Cornell University)
Publication date
6 January 2026
Document type
Preprint