Universal concentration for sums under arbitrary dependence

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Authors: Cosme Louart, Sicheng Tan
Cited by: 0

Abstract

We present a universal concentration bound for sums of random variables under arbitrary dependence, and we prove that it is asymptotically optimal for broad families of marginals admitting a uniform integrable tail-quantile envelope. The bound follows directly from the subadditivity of expected shortfall, a property well known in the risk-measure literature. Our sharpness result relies on an explicit construction of asymptotically extremal couplings. We furthermore provide practical sufficient conditions -- based on convex transformation order comparisons with exponential and power-law envelopes -- under which the bound admits simple, explicit tail profiles.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Probability and Risk Models Statistical Methods and Inference Risk and Portfolio Optimization

Publication details

Journal / source
arXiv (Cornell University)
Publication date
7 January 2026
Document type
Preprint