How to interpret hazard ratios

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Authors: Jonathan William Bartlett, Dominic Magirr, Tim P. Morris
Cited by: 1

Abstract

The hazard ratio, typically estimated using Cox's famous proportional hazards model, is the most common effect measure used to describe the association or effect of a covariate on a time-to-event outcome. In recent years the hazard ratio has been argued by some to lack a causal interpretation, even in randomised trials, and even if the proportional hazards assumption holds. This is concerning, not least due to the ubiquity of hazard ratios in analyses of time-to-event data. We review these criticisms, describe how we think hazard ratios should be interpreted, and argue that they retain a valid causal interpretation. Nevertheless, alternative measures may be preferable to describe effects of exposures or treatments on time-to-event outcomes.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Advanced Causal Inference Techniques Statistical Methods and Inference Meta-analysis and systematic reviews

Publication details

Journal / source
arXiv (Cornell University)
Publication date
14 January 2026
Document type
Preprint