How to interpret hazard ratios
Abstract
The hazard ratio, typically estimated using Cox's famous proportional hazards model, is the most common effect measure used to describe the association or effect of a covariate on a time-to-event outcome. In recent years the hazard ratio has been argued by some to lack a causal interpretation, even in randomised trials, and even if the proportional hazards assumption holds. This is concerning, not least due to the ubiquity of hazard ratios in analyses of time-to-event data. We review these criticisms, describe how we think hazard ratios should be interpreted, and argue that they retain a valid causal interpretation. Nevertheless, alternative measures may be preferable to describe effects of exposures or treatments on time-to-event outcomes.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
Statistical Methods and Inference
Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
Publication details
- Journal / source
- arXiv (Cornell University)
- Publication date
- 14 January 2026
- Document type
- Preprint