Position: Universal Time Series Foundation Models Rest on a Category Error

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Authors: Xilin Dai, Wanxu Cai, Zhijian Xu, Qiang Xu
Cited by: 0

Abstract

This position paper argues that the pursuit of "Universal Foundation Models for Time Series" rests on a fundamental category error, mistaking a structural Container for a semantic Modality. We contend that because time series hold incompatible generative processes (e.g., finance vs. fluid dynamics), monolithic models degenerate into expensive "Generic Filters" that fail to generalize under distributional drift. To address this, we introduce the "Autoregressive Blindness Bound," a theoretical limit proving that history-only models cannot predict intervention-driven regime shifts. We advocate replacing universality with a Causal Control Agent paradigm, where an agent leverages external context to orchestrate a hierarchy of specialized solvers, from frozen domain experts to lightweight Just-in-Time adaptors. We conclude by calling for a shift in benchmarks from "Zero-Shot Accuracy" to "Drift Adaptation Speed" to prioritize robust, control-theoretic systems.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Data Stream Mining Techniques Domain Adaptation and Few-Shot Learning

Publication details

Journal / source
arXiv (Cornell University)
Publication date
5 February 2026
Document type
Preprint