Republic of Moldova

The 2025 Article IV Consultation discusses that Moldova’s economy is currently recovering from a series of significant external shocks, yet it continues to face persistent structural hurdles, including high emigration, limited institutional capacity, and low international competitiveness. The dual catalysts of EU accession and the EU Growth Plan offer a transformative opportunity to elevate living standards and catalyze long-term productivity. To capitalize on this, Moldova must implement ambitious structural reforms while maintaining a disciplined policy framework to ensure macroeconomic resilience and stability. Financial projections for 2026 indicate a fiscal deficit expansion to 4.8 percent of gross domestic product, driven largely by a strategic scale-up in capital spending and infrastructure investment. While inflation is expected to remain aligned with the National Bank of Moldova’s targets, heightened global uncertainty necessitates a cautious, state-contingent monetary policy. Furthermore, while the banking sector remains stable, rapid credit growth and rising real estate prices require vigilant monitoring and strengthened borrower-based measures. Prioritizing energy security, governance transparency, and financial supervision will be essential to safeguarding public resources and unlocking Moldova's full economic potential.