Republic of Equatorial Guinea

This paper presents Republic of Equatorial Guinea’s Third Review under the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). The return to a secular decline in hydrocarbon production following the temporary boost from the 2022 energy boom is once again placing pressure on fiscal and external accounts, underscoring the urgency of fostering nonhydrocarbon growth to achieve a more diversified and inclusive economy. In June 2024, Fund Management approved a 12‑month extension of the SMP to help build a reform track record toward potential IMF financing. Program implementation has been strong: all end‑June 2025 quantitative and indicative targets were met, and most structural benchmarks (SBs) are on track, with one delayed measure expected to be completed soon and another SB proposed for modification and targeted for early 2026. The medium‑term outlook anticipates a slight economic contraction driven by declining hydrocarbon output. The authorities aim to implement sufficient fiscal adjustment to keep public debt below 50 percent of GDP and restore external balance, though risks stem from weaker hydrocarbon prices, output, or reform delays.