From Ports to Prices
Abstract
This paper examines the inflationary effects of shipping delays. We construct a novel measure of port-to-port shipping time using real-time AIS maritime data and link it with granular port-level trade and item-level price data. We document substantial heterogeneity in goods imports across ports and regions, variation in exposure to delays, and aggregate price responses to congestion shocks. Exploiting cross-product variations in exposure, we estimate both the average and dynamic effects of shipping delays on consumer prices, finding that a 100-hour delay raises inflation by roughly 0.5 percentage points at its five-month peak.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Maritime Ports and Logistics
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
Publication details
- Journal / source
- IMF Working Paper
- Volume
- 2026
- Issue
- 026
- Pages
- 1–1
- Publication date
- 1 February 2026
- Language
- EN