Understanding Hesitancy: The Latvian Russophone Minority and Russia’s Full-scale Invasion of Ukraine

This chapter examines the hesitancy of Latvian Russophones in taking a clear stance on Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Using survey data and theoretical insights from the spiral of silence theory, social identity theory, and the theory of cognitive dissonance, it explores the interplay of perceived social control, media trust, and group cohesion. Findings indicate that hesitancy is reinforced by low trust in media, informational self-isolation, and weak in-group consensus rather than explicit support for Russia. The chapter highlights the role of strategic ambiguity in navigating political pressures and identity dilemmas. These insights contribute to broader discussions on opinion formation and the complexities of ethnic minority positioning in geopolitically tense environments.