Social media ecosystems and transnational radicalization outcomes in Kenya: A mixed-methods analysis of content, platforms, networks, and algorithms

Violent extremist organizations increasingly exploit digital and social media to disseminate ideology, recruit adherents, and coordinate across borders. In the Horn of Africa, these dynamics interact with local socio-economic vulnerabilities, yet the mechanisms through which digital environments facilitate transnational radicalization at sub-national levels remain under-examined. This paper investigates the digital-media drivers of radicalization into extremism in Kenya, focusing on Likoni Sub-County in Mombasa County. Drawing on Liberalism, Transnationalism, and Securitization perspectives, the paper disaggregates digital influence into four mechanisms: online content, platform-specific dynamics, transnational network reach, and algorithmic exposure. A mixed-methods design combined questionnaires, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions among youth, community leaders, former programme participants, security personnel, civil society actors, and digital literacy trainers. Using Yamane’s formula (8% margin of error), a sample of 156 respondents was selected through multi-stage, simple random, convenience, purposive, and snowball techniques. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and regression, while qualitative data were analyzed thematically. Results indicate that digital and social media significantly predict radicalization outcomes (R² = .634, F=115.032, p< .01), with platform dynamics (β=.336), online content (β=.298), network reach (β=.272), and algorithmic influence (β=.216) emerging as strong predictors. Qualitative evidence further shows how local grievances are reframed within global extremist narratives, recruitment shifts across open and encrypted platforms, and algorithmic curation reinforces echo chambers. The paper argues for balanced counter-radicalization approaches integrating security measures with rights-sensitive digital governance, platform-tailored regulation, digital literacy, and cross-border cooperation.