How Opposition Strategies Interact under Electoral Autocracy: Evidence from Hungary’s TISZA Party

Theories on political opposition and democratic backsliding have identified factors associated with opposition success under authoritarian and semi-authoritarian regimes. Yet, they have paid limited attention to how these factors interact over time. This article applies insights from this literature – focusing on party policy positioning, opposition mobilisation capacity and democratic innovation – to the Hungarian case following the failed opposition coalition in the 2022 parliamentary election and the subsequent rise of the TISZA Party from 2024 to 2025. The article asks how the party can establish itself as a leading challenger to Fidesz amid democratic backsliding. Drawing on process-tracing analysis, it demonstrates that the interaction and sequencing of opposition strategies constituted a key mechanism behind TISZA’s relative success in generating popular support in the context of electoral and informational autocracy. By specifying the timing and sequencing of opposition strategies, the findings show that factors of democratic resistance should be treated not as isolated variables but as interdependent processes whose order and timing shape opposition outcomes.