Northern Hemisphere stratospheric temperature response to external forcing in decadal climate simulations

Abstract To predict the future state of the earth system on multiyear timescales, it is crucial to understand the response to the changing external radiative forcing (CO2 and Ozone). In this study, we use a 1-degree GEOS-MITgcm coupled general circulation model to understand the response to different levels of observed external forcing from past decades. Results from an ensemble of multi-year forecasts show the Northern Hemisphere polar stratospheric temperature increased during the period from 1992 to 2000, and decreased during 2000 to 2020. To isolate the influence of external forcing, 30-year long ensemble `perpetual' experiments were conducted in which the external forcing for a particular year is repeated, for 1992, 2000, and 2020. Each simulated year of these perpetual experiments is forced with the \coo{}, Ozone, anthropogenic aerosol emissions, and trace gases of that perpetual year but does not include any explosive volcanic forcing. This temperature increase from 1992 to 2000 is in contrast to the general expectation that the stratosphere cools as \coo{} increases. The increasing and then decreasing temperature trend is also manifest in several reanalyses, and also in CMIP6 historical simulations with a well-resolved stratosphere. The configuration of the perpetual experiments rules out either a response to volcanic emissions or a change in the phase of decadal modes of variability as an explanation for the warming rather than the expected cooling behavior. Analysis of the temperature budget showed that the behavior of the polar stratospheric temperature is dictated by the meridional eddy transport of heat as a result of changes in CO2 and Ozone in the past decades.