Improved Comparability and System-Wide Verification to Support a Scalable Carbon Credit Market

Abstract. Achieving net-zero emissions over the coming decades requires unprecedented reductions in anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) complemented by a rapid ramp-up in the magnitude of global carbon dioxide removal (CDR). The carbon credit market (CCM) is emerging as a means to finance both emissions reductions and carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere. To achieve necessary growth on these fronts, the total scope and diversity of projects that are candidates for inclusion in the CCM must expand, necessitating a means of comprehensively assessing the quality of carbon credit projects (CCPs) based on their ability to make quantifiable reductions to GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. Toward a comprehensive quality assessment, we propose a framework to assess and differentiate CCPs based on their estimated impact on atmospheric GHG composition. In parallel, we propose a path towards verification of the aggregated atmospheric impact of CCM actions, since a detectable and attributable signal in atmospheric GHG composition can be viewed as the clearest measure of their climate forcing and, therefore, effectiveness.