Assessing the prevalence, timing, and rapidity of transitions between hydrological extremes and their relation to meteorological extremes in the conterminous United States

Abstract. Rapid shifts between droughts and floods, termed hydrological whiplash, challenge water management, yet their timing and drivers remain poorly understood at continental scales. While drought-to-flood (DtF) transitions have received growing attention, flood-to-drought (FtD) transitions — though rarer — pose distinct operational challenges that are less well characterized. These wet-to-dry shifts can disrupt post-flood recovery, strain warm-season water demands, and create compounding risks for infrastructure and water quality. We analyzed daily streamflow records from 3,219 USGS streamgages (1981-2024) to characterize both DtF and FtD transitions across CONUS, with particular emphasis on understanding why these transitions are not symmetric inverses of each other. We test a wide variety of hydrological extreme transition definitions to examine the sensitivity of the number of transitions identified and their rapidity. Additionally, we identify a subset of transitions that may be impactful based on the maximum change in percentile magnitude during a transition. DtF transitions are faster than FtD transitions, and short-term (