Uncertainties in recent tropical stratospheric and tropospheric ozone changes restrict our understanding of future total column ozone change

Abstract. A variety of chemical and dynamical processes in the troposphere and stratosphere affect tropical total column ozone (TCO), the net effect of which may cause changes in surface UV radiation and impact human and ecosystem health. We use dynamical linear modeling to estimate tropical trends in TCO and partial column ozone (PCO) in the troposphere and three stratospheric layers to assess agreement between satellite observational composites and chemistry–climate model (CCM) simulations from two multi-model experiments (CCMI-1 and CCMI-2022). While both model experiments show tropical TCO increases over 2000–2021, CCMI–2022 trends (+2.5 DU) agree slightly better with observations than CCMI-1 (+1.6 DU). However, this overall agreement obscures multiple systematic differences in PCO trends between the models and observations across atmospheric layers. For example, since 2000 tropical tropospheric PCO increased significantly in CCMI-2022 (+1.5 DU) but not in CCMI–1 (+0.3 DU), largely explaining the difference in TCO trends. Also, despite nearly identical stratospheric PCO trends, CCMI-2022 trends are slightly more negative in the lower stratospheric (by ~0.5 DU), compensated by more positive middle/upper stratosphere trends compared to CCMI-1. Crucially, substantial differences exist across observational PCO trends, particularly in the troposphere and middle/upper stratosphere, and these disagreements limit the ability to evaluate CCM fidelity. Furthermore, while the inter-model correlation between late and early 21st century trends is suggestive of a potential emergent constraint on future ozone trends, the spread in observational trends precludes its observational implementation.