Resilience in Transition: Temporal Dynamics, Climate Exposure, and Development Linkages of Community Flood Resilience in Nepal

Floods are Nepal’s most frequent and high-impact natural hazard, posing growing risks to communities’ livelihoods and well-being. Using survey data from 61 Nepalese communities collected at baseline and endline through the Flood Resilience Measurement for Communities (FRMC) framework, this study investigates three dimensions of community flood resilience: temporal changes across the five capitals and five DRM cycle stages, the influence of flood hazard exposure, and the relationship between resilience and socio-economic well-being. By integrating FRMC with hazard data and development indicators from the national Census, we classify communities into resilience trajectories, identify which capitals buffer the impacts of hazards, and explore associations with poverty, education, and health outcomes. Results show how resilience evolves, what shapes it, and why it matters for broader development and climate policy. These findings underscore the importance of context-sensitive, multi-dimensional resilience measurement and highlight opportunities to leverage resilience as a development multiplier in climate and disaster policy. At the local level, the findings provide an evidence base for municipalities and community organizations to target resilience investments, identify which capacities buffer flood risks, and integrate disaster risk reduction into development planning.