Assessment of Future Solar Energy Potential in the Baltic States: Spatial Variability and Coastal Effects

It is expected for climate change to significantly alter surface solar radiation, air temperature, and cloud regimes across the Baltic States, directly impacting the long-term viability of photovoltaic (PV) energy production. While previous research has mainly focused on historical climatology, only few studies have addressed the combined influence of future radiation shifts and temperature-dependent PV efficiency at a regional scale. This study quantifies projected changes in solar energy yield in the Baltic States using a multi-model ensemble from the CMIP6 framework under various SSP scenarios. To ensure physical consistency, surface downwelling shortwave radiation is used to estimate plane-of-array irradiance, accounting for optimal panel tilt and orientation. Furthermore, PV module efficiency is adjusted based on projected near-surface air temperature to reflect real-world operational conditions. A key focus of the analysis is the spatial and seasonal contrast between coastal and inland regions. Specifically, the study investigates the moderating role of the Baltic sea in suppressing convective cloud formation and providing thermal cooling, which potentially enhances PV performance in coastal areas compared to the interior areas. Uncertainty is addressed through the analysis of inter-model spread, identifying regions where projected trends in PV yield are strong. The findings provide regionally specific, climate-resilient insights necessary for strategic solar energy planning and decarbonization efforts in the Baltic States.