Towards actionable storylines: development of a reproducible workflow

Read full text
Authors: Niels Carlier
Cited by: 0

Abstract

Storylines, or tales of future weather, are an increasingly popular climate communication strategy. Storyline research aims to inform about how extreme events arise and how severe they may become under different background climates, connecting scientific knowledge and lived experience. Central to this approach is a focus on plausibility rather than probability. Such "what-if" scenarios can stress-test policy and infrastructure, guiding or strengthening adaptation efforts. This study presents a reproducible chain of methodological steps for constructing such tales through data mining, which is demonstratively applied to the EURO-CORDEX ensemble to produce a coherent and communicable extreme heat storyline for Belgium. We present the results from a first workshop with city officials and emergency coordinators, which successfully launched an ongoing dialogue between stakeholders and scientists about the broader use of storylines as an accessible tool for climate adaptation.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Climate Change Communication and Perception Sustainability and Climate Change Governance Climate variability and models

Publication details

Journal / source
EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts
Publication date
14 March 2026
Language
EN