How sensitive is Thwaites glacier to ocean conditions?

In its present geometric configuration, the Thwaites Ice Shelf exerts only a limited influence on the upstream dynamics of Thwaites Glacier. Previous studies have demonstrated that ice flux across the grounding line is largely insensitive to the presence or absence of the ice shelf. However, these assessments have predominantly relied on diagnostic stress‑balance modelling using the contemporary geometry. In this study, we extend that analysis by evaluating the role—if any—of ocean‑induced basal melting in shaping the near‑future (decadal‑scale) evolution of Thwaites Glacier. First, we systematically quantify the sensitivity of upstream ice‑flow velocities to changes in ice rheology and ice‑shelf thickness across a suite of geometries generated through transient ice‑flow simulations. Second, we incorporate new coupled transient ice–ocean simulations to examine how varying ocean conditions influence projected glacier evolution within this integrated modelling framework. Our results indicate that both the current state and near‑term evolution of Thwaites Glacier are largely decoupled from oceanic forcing. This finding reinforces the view that present‑day mass loss from Thwaites Glacier is not primarily driven by ocean conditions and that this situation is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.