Human-water-environment feedbacks: A framework for mosquito-borne arboviral diseases in Prosopis juliflora landscapes of Kenya’s Rift Valley

Mosquito-borne disease Infections are becoming increasingly hazardous in fragile ecological areas. Such areas are characterized by inextricably linked hydrological fluctuations and human activities. Understanding how these processes interact is crucial to understanding the geographical and temporal persistence of arboviral disease risk. We develop a conceptual framework for arboviral transmission within an integrated human-water-environment system, with mosquito ecology acting as the primary biological mediator. The framework is designed based on extensive field visits in Kenya's Rift Valley underpinned by a literature review. Prosopis juliflora is given special attention, as this invasive alien woody plant has significantly altered riparian and floodplain ecosystems in the valley. The framework demonstrates how changes in terrestrial ecosystems and water regimes influence mosquito habitats, vector survival and host interaction, and, ultimately, human health. Prosopis-dominated landscapes could facilitate adult mosquito survival and persistence as well as arboviral transmission under flood and drought conditions. These processes are attributed to enhanced vegetation density, shade, and microclimatic humidity surrounding water bodies. Arboviral transmission persists in landscapes that are rapidly changing due to climate extremes, land degradation, and the spread of invasive alien plant species. The concept also emphasizes bidirectional feedback. It demonstrates how disease burden can exacerbate socioeconomic vulnerability, resource dependency, and ill-oriented practices that promote the spread of invasive species. This framework underscores the importance of an integrated approach for tackling mosquito-borne disease threats in climate-sensitive landscapes that are undergoing fast ecological change.