Wheat in Crisis: Variability of Wheat Area in Lebanon 2017-2025

Wheat stands as one of the most important staple crops worldwide. However, the vital role of this crop has been increasingly challenged in Lebanon, in recent years by multi-factorial crises from socio-economic, political, security and climate factors, threatening agricultural stability and food supply. Consequently, monitoring wheat production is crucial for managing import and export activities, developing effective policies, achieving resilient agricultural development, and ensuring food security. This study provides the first national, multi-year monitoring of wheat area and production in Lebanon (2017-2025), linking satellite observations with crisis impacts. We conducted a multi-temporal supervised classification from 2017-2018 to 2024-2025 seasons, usinging Sentinel-2 optical images and Random Forest classifier. We estimated wheat area based on a random stratified sample achieving an overall accuracy of 87%. Interannual changes were then related to major crises and input-price dynamics. Wheat area increased during 2019-2021 but dropped sharply in 2021-2022 as subsidies weakened and input costs surged. Indeed, during the transition toward economy dollarization, the computed indicator of production cost expressed in USD peak in 2021-2022 and then ease consistently with the 2022-2023 area rebound reaching the highest level observed during the study period. In 2023-2025, the crop area decreased again dramatically (-34% in 2023-2024 and -38% in 2024-2025) in relation to the conflict with Israel and associated widespread displacement of population that likely constrained field access and reduced sowing, particularly in southern Lebanon. The derived wheat cover maps were then used as input of the agronomic model AgriCarbon-EO to assess biomass and grain yields variability.