Mechanisms and seasonal marine biochemical prediction over the Canary upwelling system using the German Climate Forecast System GCFS2.2

Upwelling processes bring nutrient-rich waters from the deep ocean to the surface. Areas of upwelling are often associated with high productivity, offering great economic value in terms of fisheries. Thus, predictive skill for regional oceanographic conditions is highly desirable. On this aspect, we analyzed the seasonal prediction of the marine ecosystem drivers such as the net primary production and phytoplankton biomass along the Senegalo-Mauritanian and Moroccan upwelling systems, using the latest version of the German Climate Forecast System GCFS2.2. Our results generally show that the Senegalo-Mauritanian upwelling system is predictable 1 to 4 months in advance during boreal winter, consistent with the sea surface temperature and wind forcing (physical variables). On the other hand, in the Morocco system the effective predictability horizon for the marine ecosystem drivers extends up to 4 months, whereas that for the physical variables hardly reaches one month. Our results highlight the different mechanisms and properties impacting the different predictability horizon one can expect in the Senegalo-Mauritanian and Moroccan upwelling systems.