Emerging transmission regimes of vector-borne diseases under climate change

Climate change is reshaping the environmental conditions that govern vector-borne disease transmission, yet many large-scale assessments continue to rely on simplified climate-based indicators that overlook key biological processes regulating transmission persistence and spatial heterogeneity. Here, we employ a dynamical model, VECTRI, a framework developed by the International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) that integrates climatic and entomological factors to examine how climate change alters vector-borne disease transmission patterns across India. Our results indicate a widespread intensification and spatial redistribution of transmission, with notable expansion into regions that have historically experienced limited exposure, suggesting increasing vulnerability in areas with lower population immunity and limited preparedness. By contrasting dynamical simulations with climate-only metrics, we show that simplified indicators can misrepresent both the location and persistence of future transmission risk, highlighting the importance of integrating climate and entomological processes for improving climate-sensitive disease risk assessments and informing more robust public health planning in a warming world.