Projections of PV energy production in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East during the 21st century: Assessing the role of atmospheric aerosols

The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region constitutes a critical domain for assessing the impact of atmospheric aerosols on solar photovoltaic (PV) power potential. The EMME region is characterized by exceptionally high solar resource availability and is affected by a variety of aerosol species transported from distant sources, while also hosting suspended particles of both anthropogenic and natural origin that are frequently recorded at high concentrations. Moreover, the Eastern Mediterranean, it is identified as a climate change hotspot, where projected changes in aerosol concentrations are expected to play a pivotal role. In this study, we analyze projections from the GFDL-ESM4 global climate model, participating in the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to quantify the impact of aerosols’ and cloudiness’ spatiotemporal variability on PV power production in the EMME region, within the 21st century. To address this, we investigate trends and variability of radiation-related parameters – surface downwelling solar irradiance under all-sky and clear-sky conditions, under different Share Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP–based scenarios): SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5. To simulate the PV power output, we employ the Global Solar Energy Estimator (GSEE), which incorporates a climate interface submodule designed to process gridded climate datasets with varying temporal resolutions, ranging from hourly to seasonal, as model input. Attenuation by cloudiness plays a significant role regarding future energy production, especially at the northernmost EMME regions. Nevertheless, the role of atmospheric aerosols is dominant during the sunniest months of the year, especially in the southeastern Mediterranean.