EXSoDOS 1.0: downscaling of weather extremes shifts for ensemble climate projections using ground-based measurements, reanalysis and stochastic modelling

Abstract. Accurately representing the changes of local extreme weather events in climate projections is crucial for climate impact assessment and adaptation services. Climate models often struggle with capturing these events due to their coarse spatial resolution. Existing downscale products successfully reduce overall biases of past or future climateological variables, but the representation of variability and extreme events including their past and future shifts under climate change are still not addressed. A new stochastic model, EXSoDOS, addresses this gap by the DOwnScaling of weather EXtremes Shifts for ensemble climate projections using ground-based measurements, reanalysis, and global climate models. This is done by using a stochastic model that correlates coarse-scale gridded historical climate records with the point-scale measurements. Therefore, EXSoDOS combines ground-based data (either from the Global Historical Climatological Network or user-specified), ERA5 reanalysis, and global climate model (GCM) projections to downscale past and future daily climate records. We demonstrate EXSoDOS for 5 use cases, resp. daily minimum temperature in Belgium, daily maximum temperature in Azerbaijan, heat stress in India, wind velocity in Germany and precipitation in Mali. It is found that EXSoDOS is able to represent annual cycle variability, density distributions, and extreme events of return periods of up to 10 years, while they are all underrepresented by the raw GCM outputs. Observed tendencies towards more extremes between two past periods 1961–1990 and 1991–2020 are also better represented. Projections under the SSP585 scenario suggest amplified extremes in maximum temperature, precipitation, and heat stress by 2071–2100. Furthermore, downscaling affects the outcomes of shifting extremes under future climate change, which is evident in terms of both absolute and relative changes, as well as changes in return periods. While limitations of statistical downscaling persist, it is concluded that EXSoDOS offers a novel method for estimating past and future shifts in weather extremes for weather stations with a sufficient daily record of data of multiple decades.