Lake Victoria to the Sudd Wetland: flood wave timing, connectivity and wetland buffering across the White Nile

Abstract. The White Nile from Lake Victoria through Lakes Kyoga and Albert to the Sudd forms a complex lake-river-wetland corridor where flood propagation, storage, and attenuation remain poorly quantified. Following unprecedented and persistent flooding across South Sudan in 2022, this study quantified how long it takes a flood wave to travel from Lake Victoria to the Sudd and how upstream storage and connectivity shape multi-year flood behaviour. Using daily lake levels, discharge, CHIRPS rainfall, and MODIS-derived inundation for 2002–2024, we tracked sequential flood peaks through the Victoria–Kyoga–Albert–Sudd cascade and mapped monthly wetland dynamics across five South Sudan sub-catchments. Flood-wave tracking showed a mean system transit time of 16.84 ± 1.95 months (range 13.0–20.9 months), overturning the long-held assumption of a five-month propagation. Segmental analysis revealed rapid transmission from Victoria to Kyoga (mean 4.2 months) but strong attenuation through the Albert–Sudd reach (mean 9.3 months), consistent with extensive floodplain storage and backwater control. Correlations between Lake Victoria peaks and downstream wetland extents strengthened markedly after 2019, with r² exceeding 0.8 at 9–13-month lags, confirming strong hydraulic coupling and long system memory. The 2019–2024 high-water regime was therefore not a series of isolated rainfall events but a multi-year propagation of excess storage initiated by the 2019 positive Indian Ocean Dipole anomaly and consecutive rainfall seasons. When compared with historical episodes in the 1870s and 1960s, the persistence and spatial reach of the 2019–2024 floods rank among the most extensive in the modern record. These results redefine the White Nile as a long-memory system where upstream storage governs downstream flood risk, offering a new empirical basis for flood forecasting, wetland management, and anticipatory action in South Sudan and the wider basin.