Climate Hazard Assessment for Dairy Farming in Aydin, Türkiye: Preliminary Results from the CliResDairy Project

Abstract. This paper presents the preliminary findings of a climate hazard assessment for the dairy farming sector in Aydin, Türkiye, conducted under the Climate Resilience Enhancement in Dairy Farming (CliResDairy) Project. Aydin is a vital agricultural province, ranking fourth nationally for its cultural breed cattle population and holding a significant position in regional milk production. However, the sustainability of the sector is increasingly threatened by impacts of climate change such as prolonged droughts and extreme temperatures. Using the standardized Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) framework of the European Union's CLIMAAX project, this study assesses four key hazards: heatwaves, agricultural drought, heavy rainfall, and river flooding. The analysis, based on regional climate model projections, indicates that heatwaves pose the most severe and urgent threat, with their frequency projected to increase significantly in future climate scenarios, potentially reaching 6-8 events per year. Such events, where temperatures exceed critical thresholds for livestock health (32°C), directly reduce milk production and strain animal welfare. Currently, agricultural drought is projected to cause substantial yield losses for essential forage crops such as maize and wheat, leading to increased feed costs and threatening the financial viability of farms. Furthermore, an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation and persistent risks of river flooding present additional threats to farm infrastructure, pastures, and general operations. These findings underscore the multi-faceted climate vulnerability of the Aydin dairy sector and highlight the urgent need for data-driven, targeted adaptation strategies to ensure its long-term resilience and sustainability.