Strategic spatial sourcing can reduce impacts of nickel mining

Global nickel demand is projected to increase substantially through 2050, driven by the transition to low-carbon technologies such as electric vehicles and renewable energy storage. However, nickel mining poses significant threats to biodiversity, particularly for range-restricted species in biodiverse regions where many unexploited nickel deposits occur. Despite growing attention to the environmental footprint of critical minerals, the spatial implications of future nickel supply pathways for biodiversity remain poorly identified. This study quantifies potential habitat loss from terrestrial nickel mining under alternative future sourcing scenarios to assess the extent to which spatial sourcing decisions can reduce the biodiversity impacts of future nickel development. We analysed 487 nickel mining properties from the S&P Global database (94 current operations and 393 exploration sites) against Area of Habitat maps for range-restricted mammal, amphibian, and reptile species with known range sizes smaller than 50,000 km². We developed a method to project future mining land use using deposit-type-specific land-transformation factors to estimate potential mining footprints through 2050, explicitly incorporating uncertainty in both mine location and size. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we quantified the overlap between future mining footprints and species’ Area of Habitat to capture uncertainty in both spatial and operational parameters. We compared two contrasting supply scenarios using the Primary Exploration, Mining and Metal Supply Scenario (PEMMSS) model: (1) minimising extraction from low-grade deposits and (2) prioritising mines with the greatest contained nickel reserves. Our analysis reveals substantial variation in biodiversity impacts depending on which mining properties are developed, with some regions exhibiting disproportionately high species richness and potential habitat loss. These findings demonstrate that spatial sourcing decisions strongly influence habitat loss for threatened species and underscore the importance of integrating biodiversity considerations into mineral supply planning and policy. By identifying regions where future mining poses the greatest ecological risks, this study provides a framework to guide more sustainable sourcing strategies that balance mineral security with global conservation objectives in the energy transition.