Alabama opioid crisis: A data-driven analysis of the impact of COVID-19 and policy responses

The opioid crisis has severely affected Alabama in the last decade with high prescribing rates, rampant opioid-involved overdoses, and rising treatment admissions. This study presents the calibration of a time-dependent system of ordinary differential equations model to Alabama data from 2015 through 2023 to investigate dynamics of opioid use pre- and post-COVID-19. Predicted is an increase in use disorders and opioid overdose deaths from 2024-2028, with heroin and fentanyl use disorder ramping up while prescription opioid use disorder slows down. Our policy intervention results suggest it is vital that policy related to long-term recovery, relapse prevention, and overdose-reversals be implemented in tandem, with unintended consequences illustrated otherwise. Threshold values key to epidemic outcomes in Alabama are estimated, which can inform policymakers on tangible goals to combat the crisis.