PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR PREGNANCY PROLONGATION BASED ON ULTRASOUND ASSESSMENT OF PLACENTAL THICKNESS

The aim of the study was to evaluate the prognostic value of placenta thickness in women with prolonged pregnancy and to substantiate the possibility of using this ultrasound indicator in the construction of a mathematical model for predicting gestational age.39 pregnant women who were under observation in the late stages of gestation were included in the study; the main group consisted of 30 women with a prolonged pregnancy of more than 40 weeks, while the control group included 9 women with a pregnancy period of 37-40 weeks.All patients underwent a standard ultrasound examination with assessment of the morphofunctional state of the placenta and measurement of its thickness in a typical anatomical plane.Statistical processing of the obtained data was carried out using methods of descriptive statistics, Welch's t-test for comparing independent samples and logistic regression in order to determine the influence of the thickness of the placenta on the probability of pregnancy prolongation; the results of the regression analysis were interpreted by calculating the odds ratio.In the course of the study, it was established that the average thickness of the placenta in women with prolonged pregnancy was significantly less compared to women with full-term gestation, which was confirmed by a statistically significant difference between groups (p < 0.05).The constructed logistic regression model revealed the presence of an inverse relationship between the thickness of the placenta and the probability of pregnancy prolongation, while the negative value of the regression coefficient indicated a decrease in the risk of carriage with an increase in the thickness of the placenta.Analysis of the odds ratio showed that an increase in placental thickness by 1 mm is accompanied by a decrease in the chances of pregnancy prolongation by approximately 20%, which indicates the clinical significance of this ultrasound indicator.The obtained results indicate that the thickness of the placenta reflects the morphological changes of the fetoplacental complex at the end of gestation and can be considered as one of the independent predictors of pregnancy prolongation.The use of the thickness of the placenta as part of prognostic models allows to increase the accuracy of the assessment of the risk of miscarriage and can contribute to the optimization of the tactics of managing pregnant women in the late stages of gestation.