Ethnic and religious policy drivers of sustainable development in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta

Ethnic and religious policies play a crucial role in promoting social inclusion, political stability, and sustainable development in multi-ethnic regions. In the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, increasing pressures from climate change and economic restructuring have created new challenges for the effectiveness of ethnic and religious governance. Existing studies often consider these issues individually, lacking an integrated policy framework. This study uses a quantitative research design, collecting survey data from 420 households in three representative provinces of the Mekong Delta (An Giang, Can Tho, and Vinh Long). Based on public policy analysis, sustainable development theory, and a structural-agent perspective, a structural equation model (SEM) was used to examine the impact of six factors—natural and economic conditions, socio-economic characteristics, religious and community institutions, local policy institutions, community participation, and digital transformation—on the effectiveness of ethnic and religious policies. The results show that community participation has a positive impact on policy effectiveness, followed by the capacity of local policy institutions and the role of religious and community institutions. Natural and economic conditions and socio-economic factors have a significant impact, especially in areas heavily affected by climate risks and livelihoods. Digital transformation demonstrates significant strategic potential in improving policy accessibility and transparency in governance. This study contributes theoretically by integrating policy analysis and structural-agent methodology into research on ethnic and religious governance; methodologically by applying SEM to a multidimensional policy framework in the Vietnamese context; and practically by providing evidence-based policy implications for enhancing inclusive governance, community engagement, and adaptation for sustainable development in the Mekong Delta.