Comparative Analysis of Classification Models for Sales Prediction in E-commerce: Decision Tree, Random Forest, SVM, Naive Bayes, and KNN

The swift expansion of e-commerce has markedly heightened the necessity for precise sales forecasting, essential for efficient marketing tactics and inventory control. This research evaluates five classification models—Decision Tree, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Naive Bayes, and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN)—to predict sales outcomes using e-commerce transaction data. The models were assessed utilizing criteria including accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, AUC, and Log Loss. The findings indicate that Random Forest exceeds the performance of the other models, with an accuracy of 97.5% and an AUC of 0.991, markedly outperforming the alternatives. This study presents a unique contribution by contrasting these classification models in the realm of e-commerce in Indonesia, yielding significant insights for the advancement of more effective predictive algorithms in informatics. The results not only enhance the optimization of marketing strategies but also enrich the comprehension of machine learning applications in sales forecasting. This study underscores the necessity of choosing the appropriate model for enhanced sales forecasting, with considerable ramifications for data-driven decision-making in the e-commerce sector.