Strategic implementation of a layered CNS interface framework for strengthening civil–military air traffic management: An explanatory–predictive PLS-SEM analysis of airspace security effectiveness in the Riau Islands–Natuna strategic airspace

Airspace has evolved into a strategically contested socio-technical domain in which civil aviation operations and military defense systems coexist within an increasingly complex operational environment. Despite growing recognition of coordination challenges in shared airspace, existing research remains fragmented across aviation safety, defense strategy, and cybersecurity domains, limiting the development of integrated and empirically testable frameworks for understanding airspace security effectiveness. Addressing this gap, this study proposes the Layered CNS Interface Framework (LCIF) as a multi-layer governance architecture designed to capture interactions across policy, operational, technological, and cyber dimensions of civil–military airspace management. Using an explanatory predictive quantitative design, the study integrates a PRISMA-based Systematic Literature Review (SLR) with Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). Constructs were derived from 35 peer-reviewed studies and operationalized through a survey of civil–military airspace stakeholders in Western Indonesia. The model examines the relationships among LCIF, Strategic Defense Posture (SDP), Multi-Domain Threat Adaptability (MDTA), Civil–Military Air Traffic Management (C-M ATM), Political–Strategic Support (PS), and Airspace Security Effectiveness (ASE). The results demonstrate substantial explanatory power (R² = 0.71 for ASE). LCIF significantly influences both C-M ATM (β = 0.41) and ASE (β = 0.22), while MDTA and SDP further strengthen coordination and security outcomes. C-M ATM emerges as the central mediating mechanism linking structural integration to system-level effectiveness. Moderation analysis reveals that political–strategic support amplifies key coordination pathways, and predictive assessment confirms strong out-of-sample forecasting capability. The study contributes by advancing a governance-oriented systems-of-systems framework for airspace security, extending interoperability beyond technical integration toward multi-layer institutional coordination. The findings provide strategic insights for strengthening civil–military airspace governance in geopolitically sensitive regions.