Method for calculating electrification level and analyzing benefits of typical demand-side industries considering carbon constraints and multi-energy coupling

In the context of global climate change and low-carbon development, the electrification of terminal energy consumption is a core strategy for achieving deep decarbonization. To address the challenge of accurately assessing the true electrification level of multi-energy coupled networks, a method for calculating the electrification level and analyzing the benefits of typical demand-side industries considering carbon constraints and multi-energy coupling is proposed. Firstly, a directed graph model of the multi-energy coupled system is constructed based on graph theory, proposing a generalized electrification unified quantitative framework encompassing direct and indirect paths. Secondly, the exergy analysis theory is introduced to establish a heterogeneous energy flow carbon allocation mechanism and a node dynamic carbon potential model, and the well-posedness of the carbon potential evolution equation is demonstrated. Finally, combining Bayes-PatchTST time series modeling and error variance propagation rules, a multi-dimensional comprehensive benefit evaluation system is constructed, including carbon emission reduction, energy conservation, carbon-weighted energy efficiency, and system disturbance resistance friendliness. The simulation results of a typical industrial park integrated energy system show that the proposed exergy-based carbon allocation mechanism can correct the carbon intensity evaluation error by up to approximately 40% compared to the calorific value method; deep electrification and high-proportion photovoltaic collaboration can effectively block the propagation of upstream carbon emission fluctuations, maintaining high emission reduction resilience and operational stability under extreme conditions.