Podejście Bayesowskie w kryminalistyce: Kilka uwag o szacowaniu siły dowodów

The paper undertakes an analysis of the growing importance of the Bayesian approach in forensic science, which is replacing traditional subjective methods of forensic opinion. Considerations focus on the reliability quotient as a tool for estimating the strength of evidence, on the identification of common interpretive errors, as well as on the theoretical foundations of the Bayesian approach, its applications in forensic science and the challenges of implementing probabilistic methods in forensic practice. Included in this thesis are considerations of future developments in the analysis of evidence, with particular reference to a concept that takes into account the need to formulate two competing hypotheses about the suspect's involvement in relation to forensic traces under investigation. The need to educate lawyers in the interpretation of scientific evidence and the need for clear and precise communication in forensic opinions is also pointed out.