D7.3 - Ex-ante impact assessment of supply chain governance initiatives on biodiversity considering leakage

As part of Workpackage 7 of the CLEVER project, this deliverable describes scenario and model applications to explore the future impact of trade in three non-food biomass supply chains (soy, forest, crop aquafeed) on biodiversity and ecosystem services, and the impact of alternative supply chain governance. The applications have a a global coverage and, for soy and forest supply chains, a focus on EU and Brazil. The scenarios were co-designed through desk research, input from empirical analysis of supply chains conducted in other work packages of the CLEVER project and feedback supply chain-specific stakeholder workshops. They include an exploratory dimension - covering key future drivers of each supply chain - as well as alternative interventions along supply chain segments (e.g., conservation and restoration, production, demand and trade regulations), including specific EU and Brazil policies in the case of soy and forest supply chains. The scenarios were then assessed with the GLOBIOM global partial equilbrium model of the agriculture, forestry, bioenergy and blue food sectors, with projections of key indicators related to each supply chains and covering market (e.g., production, trade, consumption) as well as socio-economic (e.g., value added, food avalabilty) and environmental (e.g., land and water use, GHG emissions, biodiversigty loss) dimensions, at a decadal time step from 2000 to 2050 (or 2100 in the case of the forestry sector). This deliverable presents and discusses the model projections. This is version 2.0. Difference to previous version: Figures 19 (for PLA CON&BIO scenario) and Figure 24 (for both scenatios) was corrected for erroneous data (with no significant impact on results), and the PROJECT OUTPUT ACHIEVED section was updated with links to updated data records (with minor corrections and addition of code to reproduce figures from model outputs)