Statewide poult-per-hen surveys predict future hunter harvest in wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo)

Context Many state wildlife agencies in the United States have employed brood count surveys to record wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) observations for decades, detailing the number of females (hens) and recently hatched poults for each observation (i.e., poult-per-hen; PPH). Since wild turkeys are a popular game species, hunter harvest information is collected at the same spatio-temporal scale, which may be an indicator of population status. Also, 2-year-old males typically dominate the spring harvest. While PPH data may be an important productivity index and could be used to examine hypotheses related to productivity, minimal research has explored the potential applications of PPH data. Aims We aimed to explore the relationship between PPH and wild turkey spring hunter harvest two years later, as well as the spring hunter harvest index two years later. We hypothesized that PPH would predict harvest and harvest index two years later if it was a reliable index of productivity. Methods We gathered spring wild turkey harvest data from 14 U.S. states and harvest index data from nine states, as well as PPH data from these same states. We used linear mixed-effects models to assess the relationship between PPH data and: 1) hunter harvest two years later; and 2) hunter harvest index two years later. Key Results Consistent with our hypothesis, PPH predicted the subsequent spring harvest (B = 0.11; p < 0.001) and harvest index (B = 0.18; p < 0.001) at the state level two years later. Conclusions These results provide support that the statewide wild turkey summer brood surveys for Eastern (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) and Osceola (Meleagris gallopavo osceola) subspecies provide a valuable index of productivity that may be used to forecast future hunter harvests and may provide valuable insights into population status and factors influencing productivity of wild turkeys throughout the Eastern United States. Implications Our findings support that opportunistic roadside brood count surveys provide an indicator of future harvests and may be used to examine other important hypotheses. The PPH index of productivity is a valuable resource to determine factors influencing populations, which can inform wild turkey conservation.