CLIMAAX M16 Deliverable: Climate Risk Assessment for Şanlıurfa (CRAS) - Phase 2 - Şanlıurfa Metropolitan Municipality - Türkiye

Şanlıurfa Metropolitan Municipality is the project coordinator of this CLIMAAX sub-project. Şanlıurfa is located in south-eastern Türkiye, close to the Syrian border, and is a metropolitan area with a population of approximately 2.3 million people. The region lies within the Southeastern Anatolia (GAP) region, one of Türkiye’s most important agricultural and irrigation zones. Characterised by a semi-arid climate, extremely hot summers, and increasing water stress, Şanlıurfa is highly exposed to heatwaves and drought-related climate risks, affecting urban systems, agriculture, water resources, and vulnerable populations. This deliverable presents the Phase 2 Climate Risk Assessment (M16) for the Şanlıurfa region, developed under the CLIMAAX project using the harmonised CLIMAAX Risk Assessment Framework. Building on the baseline screening conducted in Phase 1, the assessment provides a refined, high-resolution analysis of priority climate hazards—heatwaves and drought—tailored to Şanlıurfa’s local context. The report integrates regional climate projections up to 2050, satellite-based land surface temperature analysis, agricultural drought and irrigation demand modelling, and socio-economic vulnerability data. Advanced workflows—including night-time ASTER land surface temperature mapping and crop-specific drought impact analysis—were applied and validated through structured stakeholder and expert group engagement. The results identify spatial climate-risk hotspots, assess risk severity and urgency toward 2050, and classify both heatwaves and agricultural drought as very high-priority risks for the region. This deliverable provides decision-ready evidence to support climate adaptation planning in urban systems, agriculture, water management, public health, and climate-resilience investment strategies.