A Scaling Analysis of Influenza Transmission in Nepal

This research provides a detailed scaling analysis of Influenza transmission in Nepal by applying time series methods and the Hurst exponent. Examining monthly incidence across the most impacted districts from July 2022 to June 2024, the study evaluates the fractal characteristics—specifically self-similarity and self-affinity—of the data. By distinguishing between long-term and short-term memory patterns, the analysis determines whether the disease spread is persistent or anti-persistent. These insights offer a robust framework for public health officials to refine forecasting models and optimize intervention strategies.